Fact-check: Over 50,000 people at Yei Freedom Square? The figure is unproven

There is no evidence to support this statistical claim, as the photos of the New Year celebration event show that Yei Freedom Square was not fully packed.

Writer: Emmanuel Bida

Yei River County Commissioner Aggrey Cyrus Kanyikwa claimed in a Facebook post on 1 January 2024 that 50,000 people attended the New Year celebration on the Yei Freedom Square grounds, but the figure is unproven.

“Yei Come back testimony today at Yei Freedom Square. Over 50,000 people gathered to enjoy the South Sudan cultural diversity of traditional dances,” Aggrey’s original post partly reads.

Screenshot of the original Facebook post

About an hour later, the post was edited to include the phrase, “…Others dwelled on the streets due to insufficient space.”

The edit was done shortly after social media users raised concerns about the capacity of Yei Freedom Square and its ability to take 50,000 people.

“Yei Freedom Square is too small to accommodate over 50,000 people,” Beke Thomas John commented. “How did you arrive at the 50,000 people? Is any counting conducted?” asks James Bob.

Screenshot of the Facebook post’s edit history.

Claim Verification:

Yei River County Commissioner Aggrey Cyrus Kanyikwa says the Yei Freedom Square measures 130 meters by 83 meters, making it 10,790 square meters. That means if every person present were to occupy a 1-meter square, there would be over 10,790 people. “The capacity of the Freedom Square was meant to contain 10,000 people,” he said.

211 Check used MapChecking, a crowd-counting tool that helps estimate and fact-check the maximum number of people standing in a given area to determine Yei Freedom Square‘s light, crowded, and packed capacities.

The tool says that 1.50 people per sqm (~10 sqft) would hold 20,038 people, estimated at a light capacity, 2.00 people per sqm (~10 sqft) would hold 26,718 people, estimated at a crowded capacity, and 4.00 people per sqm (~10 sqft) would hold 53436 total estimated packed.

1.50 people per sqm (~10 sqft), 20038 estimated total capacity

2.00 people per sqm (~10 sqft), 26718 estimated total capacity

4.00 people per sqm (~10 sqft), 53436 estimated total capacity

A look at the photos of the New Year event at Yei Freedom Square also shows that it wasn’t fully packed, but there are angles the pictures could have been taken from.

In this photo, a vehicle was packed inside Freedom Square, which wouldn’t be possible if it was fully packed.

Photo posted by Aggrey Cyrus Kanyikwa on Facebook

Analysis of other photos shared on Facebook by this user and the Office of the Governor in Central Equatoria show that this was the most packed area of the Freedom Square at the event.

Screenshot of a photo shared on Facebook of the New Year celebration at Yei Freedom Square

Conclusion:

211 Check finds the claim that over 50,000 people were at Yei Freedom Square on the New Year celebration unproven. There is no evidence to support this statistical claim, as the photos of the New Year celebration event show that the Yei Freedom Square was not filled.

A publication under 211 Check’s ‘Fact-check for a pay’ Initiative with Support from the International Fact-checking Network through the BUILD grant.

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