Fact-check: Photo of a driver on a muddy road not from South Sudan

The picture of a driver posing for a picture on a muddy road is not originally from  South Sudan; the image has been doing the rounds online since at least September 2019.

Writer: Beatrice Amude Paulino

Dalwuot Media, a Facebook page with 41,000 followers claiming to be a media and news company in South Sudan, posted an image on 8 May 2023 with a caption stating that it was a rare picture of a driver enjoying driving on a muddy road in South Sudan. However, this claim is false.

The post could not provide contextual information regarding when or where the photo was originally taken in South Sudan. This lack of information further supports the notion that the picture is not a genuine depiction of the country’s muddy roads.

A rare picture of a driver poses while enjoying driving in muddy South Sudan road,” the post that has since attracted over 220 reactions, 25 comments and three shares reads.

Screenshot of the post as shared by Dalmout Media

A reverse image search of the picture revealed that it had been used previously on various other platforms, such as blogs, Facebook posts, and tweets by publishers in Nigeria, Kenya, and Zambia. Most of these uses were satirical and unrelated to South Sudan, indicating that the picture is not unique to South Sudan.

It was first posted with the Kiswahili caption, ““Maneno ikiisha ukwame katikati ya 70 page #Thesis alafu utoke nje ujiulize mbona uliingia writing,” on September 30, 2019, by Genius Research and Consultant. This page describes itself as a full services business leading in research and training in Kakamega, Kenya.

“When you run out of words, you get stuck in the middle of a 70-page #Thesis, and then you go out and ask yourself why you started writing,” Google translation of the caption.  

The same picture was also used by Facebook Zambia Blog, a Facebook page on November 24, 2019.

This is not the first time Dalwuot Media has shared false information on its platform. In April 2023, the page claimed that Al Fateh tower had been destroyed in the ongoing fighting in Sudan, but this claim was also proven to be false after a fact-check investigation.

Conclusion:

The claim made by Dalwuot Media about the picture of a driver posing for a photo on a muddy road in South Sudan is false. The image is not originally from South Sudan but was randomly collected from the internet to fabricate a story that has not occurred in South Sudan.

To ensure accuracy and transparency, we at 211 Check welcome corrections from our readers. If you spot an error in this article, please request a correction using this form. Our team will review your request and make the necessary corrections immediately, if any.

It is crucial to fight against misinformation and disinformation in mainstream and alternative media by avoiding becoming a victim of fake news. To prevent the spread of false information, you must refrain from sharing content you are unsure about or unaware of its origin. Disinformation and misinformation can be incredibly dangerous because they can mislead people and cause harm. For instance, false information on health matters can lead to wrong decisions that can put people’s lives at risk. Therefore, it’s vital to fact-check information before sharing it to promote accurate and reliable information. Visit https://211check.org/ for more information on our fact-checking process, or send us a WhatsApp message at +211 917 298 255 if you want to present a claim. Our team will promptly respond to your request because we believe #FactsMatter.

Fact-check: Watch out for this WFP job scam on WhatsApp, don’t be fooled by fake recruitment messages

The WhatsApp message soliciting job applications for the World Food Programme via a one-page dubious site is false and potentially malicious.

Writer: Jibi Moses

A WhatsApp message claiming to be from the World Food Programme (WFP) and soliciting job applications through an unrelated link is false. The WFP has not issued any such message, nor is there any active recruitment campaign by the organisation.

“Welcome to World Food Programme Application Form Portal. Click on the link below to start your registration. All Nationalities are eligible to Apply,” the false claim reads in part.

A screenshot of the WhatsApp message doing the rounds

Investigation:

Upon investigation, it has been found that the message is false, and the link provided is a dubious site that mimics the official job application portal of the World Food Programme. 

A screenshot of the first page of the unrelated advertisement site

Job seekers are asked to apply via this site and then share the message with five friends or 15 groups on WhatsApp to qualify. However, it is essential to note that the World Food Programme does not solicit job applications this way, and any such message is fraudulent.

A screenshot of the site’s last page requesting applicants to share the link

A scan of the site using VirusTotal, a free online virus scanner, has flagged it as malicious, and it is advised that users do not visit or use the site. Job seekers are advised to apply for vacancies at the World Food Programme through the official website.

Whois record a publicly available database that contains information about domain name registrations search for both websites returns two different results, as seen here and here.

While the domain for the dubious site was registered on 10 March 2023, the authentic wfp.org domain was registered on 06 October 1994.

Domain registration information for the false site

Domain registration information for the wfp.org 

The World Food Programme (WFP) has warned of a fake WhatsApp message claiming recruitment claims of scammers. The WFP advises people to be cautious of such scams and report them if they encounter any. 

Conclusion:

The message claiming to be the World Food Programme Application Form Portal and circulating on WhatsApp is false. Job seekers should be cautious of such messages and only apply for vacancies through the official website. 

Be vigilant and cautious while dealing with unsolicited messages, and take appropriate measures to protect yourself from online scams and frauds. It is essential to exercise caution when clicking on links or downloading attachments sent via unsolicited messages, especially if they claim to be from reputable organisations like the World Food Program (WFP). In this case, the message is a scam designed to extort personal information from unsuspecting individuals.

If you receive such messages, verifying their authenticity before action is advisable. One can do so by checking the official website of the organisation or contacting them directly through their official channels.

To ensure accuracy and transparency, we at 211 Check welcome corrections from our readers. If you spot an error in this article, please request a correction using this form. Our team will review your request and make the necessary corrections immediately, if any.

It is crucial to fight against misinformation and disinformation in mainstream and alternative media by avoiding becoming a victim of fake news. To prevent the spread of false information, you must refrain from sharing content you are unsure about or unaware of its origin. Disinformation and misinformation can be incredibly dangerous because they can mislead people and cause harm. For instance, false information on health matters can lead to wrong decisions that can put people’s lives at risk. Therefore, it’s vital to fact-check information before sharing it to promote accurate and reliable information. Visit https://211check.org/ for more information on our fact-checking process, or send us a WhatsApp message at +211 917 298 255 if you want to present a claim. Our team will promptly respond to your request because we believe #FactsMatter.

Fact-check: Uncertainty surrounds the cause of dead fish in Bentiu, South Sudan

The cause of dead fish in Bentiu, Unity State, South Sudan, remains unclear, and investigations are required to establish the exact reason behind their deaths.

Writer: Jibi Moses  

Recently, images of presumably dead fish allegedly from Bentiu in Unity State, South Sudan, have been doing the rounds on social media platforms like Twitter, Facebook, and WhatsApp, attributed to “Oil pollution” that is believed to be causing serious, devastating effects to aquatic animals.

The images were first shared on the 2nd of May on Twitter by  Poth Johnson Matur, a journalist in the Office of the President. “Oil pollution causes serious, devastating effects on aquatic animals in Unity State Bentiu, South Sudan,” reads the caption of his tweet that garnered 39 retweets, 18 quotes and 62 likes.

211 Check wrote to Poth Johnson Matur to ask if he had taken the photos himself and to provide more contextual information, but he didn’t reply despite seeing the message at the time of this publication.

The images were later shared on Facebook by South Sudan Exposed, Hot in Juba, and Insight in Juba; some individuals used the same pictures, including Facebook users, who went live and posted.

The main concern of these posts is directly pointed at either pollution caused by the activities of oil exploration in Bentiu, Unity State and the dredging, which was a contentious issue in the country by late last year when the citizens cited environmental dangers of the activities; however, early this year it kicked off in some parts of Bentiu.  

Screenshot of the images as tweeted

Investigation:

Reverse image search on Google, Bing, and Yandex does not provide any information about the origin of these images, suggesting that they may be new. However, visual clues such as the electricity line and vegetation type suggest that the location could be Bentiu.

The press secretary in the office of the area governor initially posted on Facebook dismissing the claims as false but later deleted the post. This could indicate some truth to the allegations, but more investigations need to be done to determine the actual cause of the fish deaths.

A screenshot of the post (later deleted) by the Office of the Governor- Unity State Press Unit.

State authorities in the area confirmed the incident as true, according to a news report published by Juba Echo, an independent news website, on Thursday.

Johnson Bol, the Director General for the Unity State Ministry of Animal Resources and Fisheries, said on Thursday that a huge number of fish have died due to poor disposal of oil waste and chemicals by Greater Pioneer Operating Company (GPOC) in Lalop area,” the report partly stated.

Nhial Makuei, a Bentiu resident, told 211 Check the pictures in circulation are from Bentiu, Unity State oil field and that the fish got trapped in a pond dug along the roadside during construction.

When the Naam stream flooded, different fish came with water and got trapped in a pond dug along the roadside during construction when the flood reduced to the mainstream between March and April this year,” Nhial said. “Only Tilapia fish are affected; however, the rest of the fish survived to date,” he added. He said that the same area got flooded last year.

History of floods in Bentiu, Unity State:

Bentiu has been one of the areas disastrously affected by the rains since 2020,  which caused the River Nile to burst its banks, submerging most of the land in the state in floods. This caused a lot of loss of lives of people, animals and destruction and loss of property.

The floods also destroyed the dykes that were previously built to control the flow of the water, and with the floods raging on, constructing new ones made the situation very difficult. According to IOM, one of the Humanitarian organisations working in the area, at the onset of the floods in August 2020, there was a massive displacement of 608 households, which has persisted to date with a large area still in water affecting a large number of people.

These pictures have caused a mixture of reactions from the South Sudanese, with many believing that the impact of negligent oil companies and the dredging ongoing in the state is causing it. When not fact-checked, this causes panic, fear and hatred among the citizens.

Conclusion:

While it is clear that there has been an incident involving dead fish in Bentiu, Unity State, South Sudan, the exact cause of their deaths remains unclear. While some sources claim that it is due to oil pollution, other factors, such as a reduction in the area’s water level, could also contribute to the situation. Therefore, more thorough investigations are needed to establish the cause of this incident.

To ensure accuracy and transparency, we at 211 Check welcome corrections from our readers. If you spot an error in this article, please request a correction using this form. Our team will review your request and make the necessary corrections immediately, if any.

It is crucial to fight against misinformation and disinformation in mainstream and alternative media by avoiding becoming a victim of fake news. To prevent the spread of false information, you must refrain from sharing content you are unsure about or unaware of its origin. Disinformation and misinformation can be incredibly dangerous because they can mislead people and cause harm. For instance, false information on health matters can lead to wrong decisions that can put people’s lives at risk. Therefore, it’s vital to fact-check information before sharing it to promote accurate and reliable information. Visit https://211check.org/ for more information on our fact-checking process, or send us a WhatsApp message at +211 917 298 255 if you want to present a claim. Our team will promptly respond to your request because we believe #FactsMatter.

Explainer: Propaganda, misinformation or disinformation; what are they?

Analysts generally agree that disinformation is always purposeful and not necessarily composed of lies or fabrications. It can be composed of primarily true facts, stripped of context or blended with falsehoods to support the intended message, and is always part of a larger plan or agenda.

Writer: Jibi Moses

Propaganda is disseminating information—facts, arguments, rumours, half-truths, or lies—to influence public opinion.

Propaganda is the more or less systematic effort to manipulate other people’s beliefs, attitudes, or actions using symbols (words, gestures, banners, monuments, music, clothing, insignia, hairstyles, designs on coins and postage stamps, and so forth). Deliberateness and a heavy emphasis on manipulation distinguish propaganda from casual conversation or the free and easy exchange of ideas. Propagandists have a specific goal or set of goals. To achieve these, they deliberately select facts, arguments, and displays of symbols and present them in ways they think will have the most effect. To maximise effect, they may omit or distort pertinent facts or lie, and they may try to divert the attention of the reactors (the people they are trying to sway) from everything but their own propaganda.

Comparatively deliberate selectivity and manipulation also distinguish propaganda from Education. Educators try to present various sides of an issue—the grounds for doubting, the grounds for believing their statements, and the disadvantages and advantages of every conceivable course of action. Education aims to induce reactors to collect and evaluate evidence for themselves and assists them in learning the techniques for doing so. It must be noted, however, that some propagandists may look upon themselves as educators and may believe that they are uttering the purest truth, that they are emphasising or distorting certain aspects of the truth only to make a valid message more persuasive, or that the courses of action that they recommend are the best actions that the reactor could take. By the same token, the reactor who regards the propagandist’s message as self-evident truth may think of it as educational; this often seems to be the case with “true believers”—dogmatic reactors to dogmatic religious, social, or political propaganda. “Education” for one person may be “propaganda” for another.

Propaganda and related concepts

Connotations of the term propaganda

The word propaganda itself, as used in recent centuries, apparently derives from the title and work of the Congregatio de Propaganda Fide (Congregation for Propagation of the Faith), an organisation of Roman Catholic cardinals founded in 1622 to carry on missionary work. To many Roman Catholics, the word may have a highly respectable connotation, at least in missionary or ecclesiastical terms. But even to these persons, and indeed, to many others, the term is often a pejorative one tending to connote such things as the discredited atrocity stories and deceptively stated war aims of World Wars I and II, the operations of the Nazis’ Ministry of Public Enlightenment and Propaganda, and the broken campaign promises of a thousand politicians. Also, it is reminiscent of countless instances of false and misleading advertising (especially in countries using Latin languages, in which propaganda commercials or some equivalent is a common term for commercial advertising).

Alfred M. Lee and Elizabeth B. Lee classified the Propaganda devices into seven major categories: name-calling, Glittering generalities, transfer, testimonial, Plain-folk, Card-stacking and Bandwagon.

Misinformation is false or inaccurate information. Examples include rumours, insults and pranks. Disinformation is deliberate and includes malicious content such as hoaxes, spear phishing and propaganda. It spreads fear and suspicion among the population. The following are the categories of misinformation and disinformation: Fabricated Content: Completely false content; Manipulated Content: Genuine information or imagery that has been distorted like a sensational headline or populist ‘clickbait’; Imposter Content: Impersonation of genuine sources, e.g. using the branding of an established agency; Misleading Content: Misleading information, like a comment presented as fact; False Context: Factually accurate content combined with false contextual information, e.g. when the headline of an article does not reflect the content; Satire and Parody: Humorous but false stores passed off as true. There is no intention to harm, but readers may be fooled; False Connections: When headlines, visuals or captions do not support the content; Sponsored Content: Advertising or PR disguised as editorial content; Propaganda: Content used to manage attitudes, values and knowledge; and Error: A mistake made by established new agencies in their reporting. 

The rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has also given birth to new forms of misinformation and disinformation. We call this Synthetic Media to indicate the artificial production, manipulation and modification of data and multimedia by automated means, especially AI algorithms, to mislead or change the original meaning. There are fears that synthetic media could supercharge fake news, spread misinformation and distrust of reality and automate creative jobs. ‘Deep Fakes’ are one type of synthetic media where a person in an existing image or video is replaced with someone else’s likeness. While faking content is not new, deep fakes use powerful techniques from machine learning and AI to manipulate or generate visual and audio content with a high potential to deceive. Deep Fakes have garnered widespread attention for their use in revenge porn, fake news, hoaxes and financial fraud. Industry and governments are concerned to detect and limit their use. Some countries already have a national response, or institutions are working on it. “Speech Synthesis” is another branch of synthetic media that can artificially produce human speech. A computer used for this purpose is called a “speech computer” or “speech synthesiser”. Synthesised speech concatenates pieces of recorded speech or incorporates a model of the vocal tract and other human voice characteristics to create a completely “synthetic” voice.

In addition to new and more sophisticated ways of manipulating content, there are also a growing number of ways in which Social Media can be used to manipulate conversations: A Sockpuppet is an online identity used to deceive. The term now extends to misleading uses of online identities to praise, defend or support a person or organisation; to manipulate public opinion; or to circumvent restrictions, suspension or an outright ban from a website. The difference between a pseudonym and a sockpuppet is that the sockpuppet poses as an independent third party, unaffiliated with the main account holder. Sock Puppets are unwelcome in many online communities and forums; Sealioning is a type of trolling or harassment where people are pursued with persistent requests for evidence or repeated questions. A pretence of civility and sincerity is maintained with these incessant, bad-faith invitations to debate; Astroturfing masks the sponsors of a message (e.g. political, religious, advertising or PR organisations) to make it appear as though it comes from grassroots participants. The practice aims to give organisations credibility by withholding information about their motives or financial connections; Catfishing is a form of fraud where a person creates a sockpuppet or fake identity to target a particular victim on Social Media. It is common for romance scams on dating websites. It may be done for financial gain, to compromise a victim or as a form of trolling or wish fulfilment.

Disinformation is a relatively new word. Most observers trace it back to the Russian word dezinformatsiya, which Soviet planners in the 1950s defined as “dissemination (in the press, on the radio, etc.) of false reports intended to mislead public opinion.” Others suggest that the earliest use of the term originated in 1930s Nazi Germany. In either case, it is much younger (and less commonly used) than ‘propaganda,’ which originated in the 1600s and generally connoted the selective use of information for political effect.

Whether and to what degree these terms overlap is subject to debate. Some define propaganda as using non-rational arguments to either advance or undermine a political ideal and use disinformation as an alternative name for undermining propaganda. Others consider them to be separate concepts altogether. One popular distinction holds that disinformation also describes politically motivated messaging designed explicitly to engender public cynicism, uncertainty, apathy, distrust, and paranoia, which disincentivise citizen engagement and mobilisation for social or political change. “Misinformation” generally refers to the inadvertent sharing of false information.

Analysts generally agree that disinformation is always purposeful and not necessarily composed of lies or fabrications. It can be composed of primarily true facts, stripped of context or blended with falsehoods to support the intended message, and is always part of a larger plan or agenda. In the Russian context, observers have described its use to pursue Moscow’s foreign policy goals through a “4D” offensive: dismiss an opponent’s claims or allegations, distort events to serve political purposes, distract from one’s own activities, and dismay those who might otherwise oppose one’s goals.

To ensure accuracy and transparency, we at 211 Check welcome corrections from our readers. If you spot an error in this article, please request a correction using this form. Our team will review your request and make the necessary corrections immediately, if any.

Explainer: Distributed Denial of Service Attack (DDoS Attack)

This article discusses Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks, how they can be prevented and mitigated, and their potential impact on businesses.

Writer: Jibi Moses

Distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks are now everyday occurrences. Whether a small non-profit or a huge multinational conglomerate, the organisation’s online services—email, websites, anything that faces the internet—can be slowed or completely stopped by a DDoS attack. For data centres, colocation, hosting and other service providers, DDoS attacks threaten the infrastructure that provides network and service availability to all its tenants, subscribers and customers and can target the most valuable customers.

A successful DDoS attack can seriously damage a brand’s reputation and cost hundreds or even millions of dollars in revenue. Moreover, DDoS attacks are sometimes used to distract cybersecurity operations while other criminal activity, such as data theft or network infiltration, is underway.

A Denial-of-Service (DoS) attack shuts down a machine or network, making it inaccessible to its intended users. DoS attacks accomplish this by flooding the target with traffic or sending it information that triggers a crash. Some definitions of the DoS can be found here, here, here and here.

Network traffic is the data moving across a computer network at any given time. Network traffic, also called data traffic, is broken down into data packets and sent over a network before being reassembled by the receiving device or computer.  In the case of an attack, keep sight of the other hosts, assets, or services residing on your network.

Meanwhile, a Distributed denial-of-Service (DDoS) attack is a DoS attack that uses multiple computers or machines to flood a targeted resource. Both attacks overload a server or web application, intending to interrupt services. 

Many attackers conduct DoS or DDoS attacks to deflect attention away from their intended target and use the opportunity to conduct secondary attacks on other services within your network. 

These attacks come in many forms: Volume-based attacks, Protocol attacks, Application-layer attacks, UDP attacks, ICMP attacks, Ping of death, Slowloris, and NTP application attacks. 

All the above affect the victim(s) differently but with a similar intention of disrupting the user. However, this doesn’t give the attacker access to the website he/ she has attacked.

A recent example of a DDoS attack in South Sudan was the attack on the Bank of South Sudan site. The local media was awash with the news, as reported by Eye Radio, CityReview, and Sudan Post, A mysterious group calling itself Anonymous South Sudan, claimed responsibility of the attack, citing high inflation rates as the main reason for hacking the bank’s website. Calling for a drop in the wanted South Sudanese Pounds exchange rate to  400 SSPP per 1 USD.

Besides in the other parts of the world, there are some popular and recent DDoS attacks; the Github hub attack in Feb 2018, the Mirai botnet attack in 2016, The AWS DDoS Attack in 2020 and the European Gambling Company in 2021.

Meanwhile, Denial of Service should be distinct from Hacking. According to Malwarebytes: Hacking refers to activities that seek to compromise digital devices, such as computers, smartphones, tablets, and even entire networks. And while hacking might not always be for malicious purposes, nowadays, most references to hacking, and hackers, characterise it/them as unlawful activity by cybercriminals—motivated by financial gain, protest, information gathering (spying), and even just for the “fun” of the challenge. Another point is that hackers have total control of the site or whatever they have broken into, unlike DDoS, whereby the system is flooded with traffic to interrupt the system. However, DDoS is one of the many tools for hacking. 

Prevention:

DDoS (Distributed Denial of Service) attacks can be challenging to prevent completely, but there are several measures that you can take to minimise their impact. Here are some steps to stop a DDoS attack on your website:

  1. Use a DDoS protection service: Consider using a third-party DDoS protection service to detect and mitigate attacks in real-time.
  1. Increase your server capacity: DDoS attacks can cause your website to become unavailable due to overwhelming traffic. Increasing your server capacity can help your website handle the traffic and remain available during an attack.
  1. Use a CDN (Content Delivery Network): A CDN can help distribute the traffic to multiple servers and reduce the load on your website, making it more resilient to DDoS attacks.
  1. Configure your firewall: Configure your firewall to block traffic from known malicious IP addresses, limit connections from a single IP address, and filter traffic based on specific patterns common in DDoS attacks.
  1. Keep your software up to date: Regularly update your website software, including the operating system, web server, and any third-party applications, to ensure that they are free from known vulnerabilities that could be exploited in a DDoS attack.
  1. Monitor your traffic: Analyze your traffic logs to identify any unusual traffic patterns that could indicate a DDoS attack. Using a monitoring tool can help you detect attacks early and take steps to mitigate them.
  1. Have a DDoS response plan: Develop a DDoS response plan that outlines the steps you will take in the event of an attack. This should include procedures for notifying your hosting provider, engaging a DDoS protection service, and communicating with your users.

What next if attacked?

Resolving a DDoS attack can be challenging, but there are several steps you can take to mitigate its effects: Identify the source of the attack: Determine where the attack is coming from and which systems or machines are being used to launch it. Block traffic from the attacking IPs: Once you know where the attack is coming from, block all traffic from those IP addresses to your network or website. Filter traffic: Apply filters to incoming traffic to identify and block malicious traffic and allow legitimate traffic. Increase server capacity: Add more servers or bandwidth to handle the increased traffic load. Use a Content Delivery Network (CDN): A CDN distributes network traffic across multiple servers, reducing the attack’s impact on any one server. Contact your Internet Service Provider (ISP): Your ISP may have tools or resources to help you mitigate the effects of a DDoS attack. Implement DDoS protection software: Several commercial and open-source options are available to help prevent DDoS attacks.

Remember that preventing DDoS attacks before they occur is the best strategy. It’s important to stay vigilant and keep your security measures up-to-date to reduce the risk of a successful attack.

To ensure accuracy and transparency, we at 211 Check welcome corrections from our readers. If you spot an error in this article, please request a correction using this form. Our team will review your request and make the necessary corrections immediately, if any.

Data Story: South Sudan’s population surges to 12.4 million, reveals 2021 survey

The survey is expected to be an essential resource for the government’s development planning, decision-making, and provision of services as it provides the latest accurate population estimates and other demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the inhabitants.

Writer: Jibi Moses 

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in South Sudan released the Population Estimation Survey 2021 (PES) on April 6th, 2023, revealing a surge in the country’s population to 12.4 million people, a rise of over four million people. The PES 2021 was conducted between May 28th and June 15th, 2021, across ten states and three Administrative areas, with a female population of 52.9% and a male population of 47.1%, while the youth population stands at 77%.

The PES 2021 is expected to be an essential resource for the government’s development planning, decision-making, and provision of services. The survey will monitor the performance of the National Development strategy and the sustainable development goals while providing policymakers with briefs and reference points for research.

With South Sudan’s last census conducted in 2008, the PES 2021 provides the latest accurate population estimates and other demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the inhabitants. The NBS utilised satellite imagery and enumeration to ensure the quality of information and data for the survey met the basic assumptions of the analytic method.

Despite the impact of civil war outbreaks since independence in 2011, the PES 2021 provides a comprehensive and up-to-date representation of South Sudan’s population, enabling policymakers and decision-makers to implement evidence-based planning and decision-making for progress and sustainable development in the country.

The country’s last Census was in 2008, when it was still an autonomous region of Sudan. While releasing the results, Isaiah Chol Aruai, the chairperson of NBS, explained that the figures are based on satellite imagery and enumeration across ten states and three Administrative areas.

The quality of information and data for a given locale, as well as the ability of the data to meet the basic assumptions of the analytic method, are key to performing accurate estimates or projections,” Isaiah Chol Aruai said.

S/No.State/Administrative areaModelled Population Estimates 
1Upper Nile 790,147
2Jonglie 791,105
3Unity 892,780
4Western Bahr El Ghazal 562,555
5Northern Bahr el Ghazal 1,924,342
6Warrap 2,639, 484
7Lakes 1,265, 473
8Western Equatoria 663,233
9Central Equatoria 1,324,521
10Eastern Equatoria 981,902
11Greater Pibor A A240,102
13Ruweng AA234,416
14Abyei133,955
Total12,444,018
Fig 1.0: A table showing the data of the PES 2021 | Source: National Bureau of Statistics 

National statistical offices often produce estimates and projections of various characteristics of a population. These statistics are a vital source of information for decision-makers throughout the government, the private sector, and civil society. An estimate calculates a population’s size or distribution or another population characteristic for the present or past. At the same time, a projection describes these characteristics in the future.

In most countries, policymakers and other data users often require accurate information between census data releases every ten years. Although a full population count only occurs during a census, statistical methods and tools often produce regular, up-to-date population estimates.

Population estimates can describe the population size and demographic characteristics such as age, sex, or education level. Population estimates depend on change’s demographic components: mortality, fertility, and migration.

Estimates of mortality, fertility, and migration estimates are derived from data available from censuses, surveys, registration systems, and other administrative records. Estimates and projections are calculated similarly. However, estimates employ observed data and hypotheses of demographic change when data are incomplete. Projections, on the other hand, rely on hypotheses about demographic change in the future.

One of the most widely used approaches for producing population estimates and projections is the Cohort Component Method, which can be used to calculate detailed statistics such as population by age and sex, total fertility rate, infant mortality rate, and population growth rate. A population may also be estimated and projected for multiple geography units, from the national to various subnational levels (e.g.States, Counties, Districts, Payams, Bomas). 

Figure 2: A bar chart showing the total populations from the ten states and the administrative Areas | Source: Flourish Studio Data Visualization

Fig 3. A stacked bar chart showing the figures of the two most recent population census in 2008 and the PES 2021 | Source: Flourish studio data visualization

Fig 4: A bar chart showing the population percentage between the two censuses, 2008 and PES 2021 | Source: Flourish Studio Data Visualization

Criticisms from the Public:

The PES 2021 report was received with much scepticism and criticism from the public. Individuals and organisations criticised the authenticity of the data. Some voices challenging the report can be found in this article by The East African and an analysis by The Sudd Institute. 

Some opposition politicians and some in the civil society questioned the estimates that put the total of the country’s population to 12,444,018 and are demanding what they term “a proper census” as per the 2018 peace agreement. UN estimates had put the population at 11,556,069 even though the UN itself partly supported the current survey,” reports The East African

Augustino T. Mayai, the Managing Director of the Sudd Institute, an independent research organisation, analysed the scientific, political, and policy implications of the PES results stating that the new estimates are in stark contrast with South Sudan’s 2008 census counts, which stood at 8.26 million, informing the 2010 regional and national elections. These estimates, he says, “…have so far generated heated debates in various quarters, with many outright contesting them for a host of good reasons.”

However, on the 13th of April, NBS clarified that the PES 2021 results should not be used for electoral purposes, Juba Echo, but for planning and policy guidance, such as Something Augustino T. Magai questions.  

‘’…if the PES results cannot be used for electoral purposes, then it is odd to use them

for development. Using the scientifically troubled PES results for development (i.e., 

distributing services) is more problematic than using them for politics. This is because 

development is for the ‘greater good for a greater number of people,’ as should be obvious, 

South Sudan’s politics benefits a select few. Let me illustrate. Suppose the Northern Bahr el Ghazal government constructs 50 new schools in Aweil East based on the current estimates, subsequently recruiting teachers and enrolling students. It then dawns on the government that only ten such schools must be based on actual enrollments. The result then boils down to resources wasted and injustice inflicted on populations that genuinely deserve the services but could not get..,’’ as quoted in his report. 

Conclusion:

Much as the PES 2021 results announced, NBS decried a lot of challenges in bringing out accurate and perfect results; among these, they cited the insecurity in parts of the country, floods that had submerged a lot of the inhabited land areas, lack of resources both financial and human. However, against all odds, they could still get the necessary data.

The PES 2021 results put the current estimated population at 12,446,016, with an increment of 4,186,335 from the 2008 population census, which had the country at 8,260,490. This shows an annual percentage growth of 3.9%. 

The current population of South Sudan is 11,556,786 as of Tuesday, April 25th 2023, based on the latest United Nations data. With 43% of the population below 14, 54%  between 15 – 64 and 3% representing 65 and above.

Population estimates are a vital source of information for decision-makers throughout the government, private sector, and civil society. In most countries, policymakers and other data users often require accurate information between census data releases every ten years. Although a full population count only occurs during a census, statistical methods and tools often produce regular, up-to-date population estimates.

Demographic components such as mortality, fertility, and migration must be considered to ensure the accuracy of population estimates. Estimates of these components are derived from data available from censuses, surveys, registration systems, and other administrative records. The Cohort Component Method is widely used for producing population estimates and projections.

Given the importance of accurate population estimates, it is recommended that South Sudan conducts regular surveys and censuses to ensure policymakers have the necessary information for decision-making. Innovative methods such as satellite imagery and enumeration can enhance the quality of information and data collected during surveys and censuses. Policymakers should prioritise evidence-based planning and decision-making for progress and sustainable development in South Sudan.

This article is part of our data stories work written with the firm belief that factual and data-driven reporting can influence decision-making and public perceptions and educate the audience on public interest issues.

To ensure accuracy and transparency, we at 211 Check welcome corrections from our readers. If you spot an error in this article, please request a correction using this form. Our team will review your request and make the necessary corrections immediately, if any.

Fact-check: Is Al Fateh Tower destroyed in Khartoum, Sudan?

No, the claim that the Al Fateh tower was destroyed is false; the image doing the rounds online has been altered.

Writer: Beatrice Amude Paulino

According to a Facebook post by Dalmout Media, the Corinthia Hotel, commonly known as Burj Al Fateh, has been destroyed in the current civil war in Sudan. The page has an audience of 6,500 likes and 2,800 followers and claimed in a post that had already made five shares within 18 hours of circulation.

The same picture was also shared on Twitter here.

Burj Al Fateh, also known as Corinthia Hotel, overlooks Tuti Island, where the Blue and White Nile converge and are shaped to resemble a twin sail. It is one of the city’s most luxurious and atmospheric hotels.

A screenshot of the picture used by Dalwout Media in the post

According to the Google search lens, there is no destruction on the Burj Al Fateh building in Khartoum, Sudan. Still, the image that Dalwout Media uses is an altered picture of the original image of the building. This is because there needs to be evidence from the main and international media like Al Jazeera, who have been following and covering the war from day one.

Some of the views under the Dalwout Media post stated that “The situation is tragic enough without fake photos being used and certainly does not support your credibility.” Rebecca Bradley. This supports the fact that the building wasn’t destroyed. 

AI Fateh Tower, also commonly called Burj AI-Fateh Hotel and Corinthia Hotel, is a five-star hotel located in central Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, the meeting point of the Blue Nile and the White Nile In the centre of Khartoum’s commercial, business and administrative districts.  

A picture of the Burj AL-Fateh Hotel.

Conclusion:

211 Check finds the claim that the war in Sudan has destroyed Burj Al Fateh as false; the image was altered. The picture was randomly collected from the internet to fabricate a story that has yet to occur in Khartoum, Sudan, due to the clashes in Sudan.

Fight misinformation in mainstream and alternative media by not being a victim of fake news. Refrain from sharing content you are unsure about or don’t know where it comes from to prevent spreading false information. For more information on our fact-checking process, visit https://211check.org/ or send us a WhatsApp message at +211 917 298 255 to present a claim. Our team will fact-check it and respond promptly. #FactsMatter

Fact-check: Is this an authentic Facebook page for Minister Josephine Lagu?

No, this is an example of social media scams that steal personal information from unsuspecting public members.

Writer: Jibi Moses 

A Facebook page in the name of Hon Josephine Lagu has sponsored a post and published two advertisements on 23 March 2023 inviting farmers to apply for “funding,” but this is false.

The page with 513 likes and 519 followers was created on 23 March 2023 and is being managed from Kenya according to its transparency information, but claims that the Ministry of Agriculture in South Sudan has received funding to improve agricultural development and mechanisation in a joint venture with the World Bank, International Fund for Agricultural Development, and the  World Food Program. Hon Josephine Lagu is the Minister of Agriculture and Food Security. 

Screenshot of the Facebook page transparency information

“This program aims to modernise agriculture and increase productivity. The funds will be used to purchase agricultural machinery for farmers to increase mechanisation and productivity. Farmers are invited to indicate the necessary agricultural equipment to modernise their farming operations and mechanize for agricultural productivity. Enterprises that hire farm equipment to farmers are also encouraged to apply,” partly reads the sponsored Facebook advertisement

A screenshot from the Facebook page 

Investigation:

The advert is linked to a Google Form, which requires the applicant to fill in his /her details and the type of assistance needed.  The personal information required is the applicant’s name, contact details and location. 

This advert is a typical example of social media scams that intend to steal people’s details for them to use for their personal gains. Hackers use this trick to dupe people into giving out their personal details. 

The Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security does not run such programs. Recently, similar adverts have been running using government ministries and individuals claiming to be giving loans and assistance in many ways, as seen here,  here, and here.  

Conclusion:

211 Check finds the claim that Josephine Lagu, South Sudan’s minister for agriculture and food security through her Facebook page, is calling for the public to apply for farming assistance false. The Facebook page on which the advert is running does not belong to the minister herself hence the call for application is ‘just a social media scam

Fight misinformation in mainstream and alternative media by not being a victim of fake news. Refrain from sharing content you are unsure about or don’t know where it comes from to prevent spreading false information. For more information on our fact-checking process, visit https://211check.org/ or send us a WhatsApp message at +211 917 298 255 to present a claim. Our team will fact-check it and respond promptly. #FactsMatter

Fact-check: These pictures don’t depict the Sudan pipeline transporting oil from South Sudan

These pictures were first used in India in 2015 and 2018; therefore, they’re not from Sudan

Writer: Jibi Moses

Sixty 4 Tribes Press, a Facebook page, published an article accompanied by two pictures of pipelines, the other on fire. The page claimed that locals in Port Sudan had set Sudan pipelines carrying South Sudan oil ablaze. 

The Facebook post attracted over 160 reactions, 60 comments and 49 shares, but it is false.

A screenshot of the post by Sixty 4 Tribes Press

Investigation:

211 Check carried out a reverse image search on the pictures, and the results showed images from different locations. One of the images was first used by an Indian Press, Energyworld.com, explaining the Bhilai Steel Plant Blast in a blog published on October 10, 2018. 

Other instances were the Bhilai steel plant blast, and the images used are shown here, here, here, and here.

Oilprice.com Nasdaq used the second image on Dec 3rd 2015. After that, many other sources have used it in their articles, as seen in links 1,  2, and 3. The photo is used as a stock image on the internet

Conclusion:

211 Check finds the claim that locals have razed down pipelines in Sudan carrying South Sudan is false. The pictures shared are not of the Sudan pipeline carrying South Sudan’s oil being set ablaze; they trace their origin back to 2015 and 2018, respectively, with one of an incident of the Bhilai steel plant blast in Chhattisgarh, India, not in Sudan.

Fight misinformation in mainstream and alternative media by not being a victim of fake news. Refrain from sharing content you are unsure about or don’t know where it comes from to prevent spreading false information. For more information on our fact-checking process, visit https://211check.org/ or send us a WhatsApp message at +211 917 298 255 to present a claim. Our team will fact-check it and respond promptly. #FactsMatter

Fact-check: Is UNICEF currently offering employment opportunities?

No, UNICEF has not advertised any jobs as claimed in this advert link; it is just a social media scam that people should avoid.

Writer: Jibi Moses 

A job advert claiming to be from UNICEF recently went viral on social media, mainly WhatsApp groups, but it is false.

The advert’s welcoming note on the site’s homepage reads, “Welcome to UNICEF Application Form Portal. Click on the below to start your registration. All nationalities are eligible to apply.”

A screenshot of the false advert on WhatsApp

Investigation:

211 Check analysed the site’s address using VirusTotal, a tool used to analyse suspicious files, domains, IPs and URLs to detect malware and other breaches and automatically share them with the security community. The results show that it is phishing malware. 

A screenshot of the Virustotal analysis results

Secondly, UNICEF South Sudan published a disclaimer on its Facebook page, alerting the public that they have not advertised for jobs. Therefore, the public should ignore the message in circulation and consistently get open jobs from their website.

This message going around via WhatsApp and other online platforms suggests applications to UNICEF. This is a fake job advert or calls for application. All UNICEF vacancies are announced on this official website 👉🏾 http://jobs.unicef.org. Only use this website address to view our latest vacancies and to apply for them,” UNICEF South Sudan said in a Facebook post.

𝗨𝗡𝗜𝗖𝗘𝗙 𝗗𝗢𝗘𝗦 𝗡𝗢𝗧 receive applications (including cover letters and CVs) through WhatsApp or email. Do not open the link in the screenshot; 𝗜𝗧 𝗜𝗦 𝗙𝗔𝗞𝗘!” It added.

The UNICEFdisclaimer as it is on their Facebook page

Lastly, when the link is opened on a protected computer with an updated antivirus, it is automatically blocked.

Screenshot showing the site being blocked by NordVPN

Conclusion:

211 Check finds that claim that UNICEF is offering jobs through a site other than its original website is false. According to the above results, this job advert is a phishing scam and not genuine. Phishing is a form of social engineering where attackers deceive people into revealing sensitive information or installing malware. 

We should always be aware by updating our gadgets with powerful anti-viruses and avoiding opening suspicious links. The public should use basic cyber skills to identify such scams quickly. 

Fight misinformation in mainstream and alternative media by not being a victim of fake news. Refrain from sharing content you are unsure about or don’t know where it comes from to prevent spreading false information. For more information on our fact-checking process, visit https://211check.org/ or send us a WhatsApp message at +211 917 298 255 to present a claim. Our team will fact-check it and respond promptly. #FactsMatter